OPEC retains India’s 2022 oil demand forecast at 5.30 mb/d

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Biznextindia : In 2022, India’s oil demand is anticipated to increase by around 0.4 mb/d, with total volumes expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels on an annualized basis, the OPEC said in its monthly oil market report.

As per the report, India’s 2021 oil demand is likely to be below 5 million barrels per day(mb/d), but 2022 oil demand to reach 5.30 mb/d.  In 2019, the pre-pandemic year, India’s oil demand was 4.84 mb/d.

“COVID-19 containment measures are anticipated be sustained by an increase in vaccination, natural immunization and improved management of the virus. Regarding products, gasoline is anticipated to be the strongest product in 2022, supported by an acceleration in mobility, uptick in vehicle sales and overall steady economic development. Diesel is assumed to be supported by healthy industrial, construction and agriculture activities in 2022” the report said.

In the near term, India’s oil demand should continue to pick up pace after the monsoon season with the festive season, as well as improving industrial activity providing consumption support for the reminder of the year. However, uncertainty will remain high, largely associated with new COVID-19 variants, in addition to the pace of vaccination rollout programmes. Similarly, high retail prices and government reaction to those prices are to be closely monitored in the coming months. That said, oil demand is anticipated to pick up pace over the short term, encouraged by a low baseline and a rise in transportation and industrial fuel demand. The transportation fuel recovery is estimated to continue going forward, supported by better management of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, transportation fuel demand is projected to lead product demand, followed by middle distillates.

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