Ind-Ra revises India’s FY22 GDP forecast to 10.1% from 10.4% earlier

Second wave to be less disruptive for the economy

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Biznextindia : India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has revised its GDP forecast for 2021-22 financial year to 10.1 per cent from 10.4 per cent earlier. The revision is based on the assumption that the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic starts subsiding from mid-May onwards.

“Real GDP in FY22 is estimated to come in at INR148.2 trillion, which is 10.7% lower than FY22 GDP trend value. Consumption slowdown is estimated to contribute 63.4% of the decline, followed by investment 47.7%” said Ind-Ra.

However, Ind-Ra has analyzed that the second wave will be less disruptive from the economic points of view though the number of infections is far higher than the first wave last year.  This because the government’s focus on micro-containment zones instead of lockdowns. Also the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccine would enhance safety and reduce the fear element among the vaccinated economic agents.

“..Unlike the first wave, the administrative response is not abrupt, and is unfolding gradually in a graded manner. Also, households. businesses and other economic agents are better prepared and there is a significant amount of learning by doing, which can help them withstand and navigate through the second wave of COVID-19 crisis” said Ind-Ra.

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